Why an Analyst Raised AMD’s Price Target by 459%

Danely wrote successful a Thursday enactment that his team’s checks suggest that AMD is taking marketplace stock from Intel (INTC)–gaining 1.5% successful the archetypal quarter—for the archetypal clip successful 15 years. He predicts the gains volition proceed and that AMD volition scope a 20% marketplace stock by the extremity of 2022, adjacent to the company’s erstwhile peak. In the opening of 2019, AMD had a stock of astir 2.5% successful server multiprocessing units, according to Citi’s data.

AMD’s stock gains should past astatine slightest 2 years, helium said—benefiting from ongoing accumulation problems astatine Intel, among different things. Intel’s next-generation accumulation exertion volition endure from delays, the expert predicted. Production holdups apt mean that Intel’s margins volition thin, arsenic semiconductor manufacturers typically summation their nett the longer a spot is produced.

For investors who bargain successful to Danely’s thesis, the expert recommends a pairs trade: underweight Intel banal portion overweighting AMD shares. A pairs commercialized typically involves 2 stocks whose movements are inversely linked: An capitalist shorts, oregon bets against, one, portion taking a agelong presumption successful the other. Danely wrote that risks to specified a commercialized see Intel fixing its accumulation issues successful a shorter-than-expected clip framework and AMD facing delays with its server chips.

Previously, Danely had justified his comparatively debased AMD people terms with a prediction that Intel would prosecute successful a terms warfare with AMD and crush its advances into markets dominated by Intel. Danely wrote that helium inactive views a terms warfare successful cardinal processing units arsenic likely, and present expects it to statesman erstwhile idiosyncratic machine income chill and Intel’s market-share losses Mount.

Despite Danely’s affirmative telephone connected AMD—and a videogame hardware announcement featuring the company’s chips—shares fell 2.4% to adjacent the regular league astatine $86.93. Intel banal dropped 1.3%, to $55.81, amid wide weakness successful tech, including spot stocks, aft Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported net earlier the opening doorbell Thursday. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 2.2%.

Write to Max A. Cherney astatine max.cherney@barrons.com